3D printing may sound futuristic , the underlying technology is an evolutionary step, from common inkjet printers that spray ink toner onto paper, to spray extrusion of layers of plastic resin that add up to form a 3D object. Between inception, in 2007, and 2011, sales of 3D printers grew at an average annual rate of 346%, Sales of 3D printers increased from a mere 66 printers in 2007 to 35,508 at the end of 2012. The total addressable market for 3D printing remains somewhat controversial as the technology can also be used with other materials such as metal and, potentially, nano-technologies, creating challenging security policy constraints for the addressable market.
The majority of customers for 3D printing technology (outside of the military) have been hobbyists, DIYers, and engineering students. If we consider the target or addressable market for this technology to be “innovators” only, the inflection point for the cumulative technology adoption curve might already have been passed, indicating that the growth might see a near-term lull. 3D printers crossed into the general consumer early-adopter market in 2012 as Staples started selling 3D System’s Cube.
3D Printers Accessibility and Adoption
Accessibility and functionality are preventing general consumers from using printers. We believe that easily accessible knowledge and skills required to use a 3D printer, and the increase in functionality (usefulness), could ultimately drive mass-market adoption and growth. Currently, 3D printing involves either personally designing an object, or downloading a CAD file and messing with printer settings, which makes the technology inaccessible for the average consumer. Unless there is a marketplace where 3D object designs can be downloaded, and printing is as simple as hitting a “print” button, 3D printers are not likely to see mass adoption.
Disruption in Business Model
Unlike Printer Finding a Place on Office Desk, 3D printers could drive an entire new implication being that goods can be manufactured close to point of purchase. Moreover, goods can be customized according to the consumer as it requires only a change in the instructions in the software. These first-order implications will cause businesses all along the supply, manufacturing, and retailing chains to rethink their strategies and operations. According to Professor D’Aveni,
In 25 years, entire industries are going to disappear. Countries relying on mass manufacturing are going to find themselves with no revenues and no job.
However, 3D printed objects are not as strong as injection-moulded objects, as layer-by-layer printing technique makes objects similar to a Lego wall, with the brick structure being strong when pressed down, but breaking easily if pushed from the side. Additionally, only one material can be utilised for printing an object, which is rarely the case in the real world, as an object is made of several composite materials utilising metal as well as plastic.
Whether Professor D’Aveni prediction comes true or not, 3D printing is likely to see growth in low-volume high-end manufacturing applications like medical, defence and aerospace, or artisanal applications.