In the Indian Telecom industry, Data and Voice markets differ in elasticity. Voice is demand constrained with fixed time availability, and service differentiation is difficult. For data, demand will be driven by screen size, resolution, and speeds. Users are also likely to spend more time on data. By end-2017, Jio will have capacity to offer 4G LTE data of 4 Bn GB/day and Voice of 14 Bn min/day
India has 124 Mn 4G Smartphones of which Continue reading Why Reliance Jio Priced the Prime Plan at Rs 303 in 4G LTE Data Tariff War ?
With the extension of free trial to Mar 2017 and recent announcement of incremental investment of Rs300 bn in the telecom venture, Jio is clearly not pulling any punches. This forces incumbent telcos to speed up 4G rollouts as sunsets on 2G networks which are a drag on the precious spectrum as we head into an era of convergence.
Whilst there are media reports of incumbent telcos considering a merger, we believe that the same is unlikely to fructify given: (a) all three incumbent operators have significant revenue market shares (>19%) and are unlikely to be Continue reading Merger of incumbent Vodafone + Idea or Case for Active Infra Sharing ?
The cash crunch in the economy, driven by the government’s recent demonetisation of old Rs500 / 1,000 notes will impact telecom operators on several fronts. The move will impact prepaid subscriber recharges more (~80% of sector revenue and 95% of subscribers) as these are largely in cash. Industry channel checks suggest that there has been a sharp 20-50% drop in prepaid recharges since the demonetisation announcement as subscribers Continue reading Jio 4G & DeMonetisation – Double Edge Sword Attack on Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Lobby
Airtel, Vodafone and Idea [A-Vo-Id Operators] have come up with a very clever strategy to counter Reliance Jio Infocomm’s Mobile Data revolution. A-Vo-Id lobby will split the Indian Telecommunications services market based on Voice Vs 3G/4G Mobile Data. Justifying their stand, they put up an argument that 2G phones still dominate. Of the approximately 1 billion connections, there are 750m/200m/50m 2G/3G/4G handsets. [We estimate there are 65 Mn 4G handsets expected to reach 100 Mn by end of 2016] The 4G market will move to bundled plans whereas 2G/3G will remain unbundled.
Annual subscriber additions in India is about 75 Mn. A-Vo-Id lobby further assumes Continue reading Airtel, Vodafone, Idea to divide market into Voice vs Mobile Data to counter Jio
The much awaited Jio Tariffs have taken the industry by storm. It could well disrupt the industry as cheaper data and free unlimited calls have sent telecom captains into tizzy and massive anxiety. Bundling of free voice along with data service offering was not at all a surprise to us. However, we are not sure whether free voice (which would be VoLTE) would be billed any data or Continue reading Jio Silences Airtel / Vodafone / Idea Cash Register with Free Unlimited Calling
Pure Play Wireless Operator, Idea Cellular’s Voice RPM expanded 2.9% QoQ as the company did not increase discounts in the first half of the quarter. Idea’s tactics seem to have backfired as VLR subscribers declined and minutes fell 1.1%. Thus Idea’s sequential voice revenue growth at 1.8% trailed Airtel’s 2.9% the major cash cow for the Wireless Business in India.
Wireless Broadband Performance
Idea’s data revenues grew 4.3% qoq, continuing Continue reading Idea’s Voice Cash Cow Under Pressure, 27 Mn Broadband Subscribers