The cash crunch in the economy, driven by the government’s recent demonetisation of old Rs500 / 1,000 notes will impact telecom operators on several fronts. The move will impact prepaid subscriber recharges more (~80% of sector revenue and 95% of subscribers) as these are largely in cash. Industry channel checks suggest that there has been a sharp 20-50% drop in prepaid recharges since the demonetisation announcement as subscribers Continue reading Jio 4G & DeMonetisation – Double Edge Sword Attack on Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Lobby
It has been over 5 years since Mobile Number Portability has been introduced in India. We take a look at the net subscriber gains or losses for various operators. Incumbents Airtel, Vodafone and Idea stand out as the only gainers; Idea remains the biggest gainer with 17 mn net port-ins until end-January 2016. Not surprisingly, RCom, Aircel and Tata Indicom / DoCoMo are the biggest losers. BSNL’s performance is surprisingly respectable.
Idea tops the chart with Continue reading Who Gained in Indian Mobile Number Portability Battle after 5 Years ?
ARPU & Subscribers Growth – Most of the subscriber addition in India is largely coming from the lower ARPU subs, which negates any upward migration of ARPUs of existing subs graduating from 2G to 3G or from 3G to 4G (or even 2G to 4G directly). Also, note that the Top 10-15% sub-base in India has disproportionately high economics relative to the average Continue reading Dynamics of Mobile Subscribers Spend in India
For an investor in Indian Telecom story, he can either choose a Telecom Infrastructure Company or a Service Provider to invest in. Relatively, the tower company can exhibit a stable and consistent growth profile versus the service provider.
Data has a long way to go in India and voice usage is still rising. Data penetration is ~25% of the wireless base. 3G penetration, which reflects a higher/regular Continue reading Does Indian Telecom Need More Towers / BTS Radio ?
Indian GSM subscriber numbers continued its upward trajectory after few months of decline amidst cleanup of inactive and low end consumers by the Telecom Companies. Top 3 GSM operators gained a total of 6.5mn subscribers (ex Uninor) in Feb-13 vs. a gain of 0.4mn in Jan-13. All of the net subscriber adds were by the incumbents – Idea, Bharti and Vodafone. Clearly, competition from challengers has reduced and the top three GSM players (Bharti, Vodafone and Idea) are able to maintain discipline. GSM Mobile Subscriber base in India at the end of Fb-2013 is 655 Mn. Continue reading Idea, Airtel, Vodafone Lead GSM Subscribers Addition
Early Trends after the introduction of All India Mobile Number Portability is in-line with my expectation – CDMA and BSNL will be the biggest losers. Operators launched competing plans for Number Portability. Surprisingly it is Vodafone which has captured the most number of Port-Ins followed by Idea with its aggressive advertising campaign. However, compared to a massive 725 Mn Subscriber base on all India basis, the churn is very very low as I expected upto 5% of subscriber base then. It is not even 1% now so I was awful in this prediction.
Here is the complete Data on Operator, Port-In, Port-Out and Net Gain
- Vodafone 94747 44041 50,706
- Idea Cellular 74978 43011 31,967