At time when Indian Telcos are still struggling to upgrade their customers to 3G and designing strategies to offload 3G network traffic to Wi-Fi, Korean Telcos will finish deployment of LTE-A [150 mbps speed, ideally] by the end of this year and in the absence of 5G in near term, they expect mobile capex to continue to fall YoY. Around 60% of the total Korean wireless subscribers are expected to migrate to LTE by end 2013, and establish a more stable three-player market [SK Telecom, LGU and KT Corp]. In next phase of LTE competition (next 6–12 months), expect SKT to reap benefit of its dominant market share as LTE growth slows. KT Corp is also catching up in LTE market share & strong earnings growth of its non-telco businesses.
LGU’s LTE market share gain will also help drive its fixed line business and the company is expected to maintain +20% cellular market share. The company is also expected to launch LTE-A service in Q3-2013 to help sustain its wireless market share. By the end of the year, LGU is expected to post 70% migration of its total subscriber to LTE services.
KT Corp is expected to continue gaining share in the LTE market after having surpassed LGU in total LTE subscribers in May. KT will have the most upside room to gain on LTE subscribers as it has the lowest LTE-to-total subscriber ratio, of 50%, by the end of this year. KT’s growing media and non-telecom businesses will help offset the decline in fixed line business from its PSTN business. Its non-telecom business has come through with strong execution and earnings growth. In the upcoming Spectrum Auction, though the bidding structure proposed by the regulator is conducive to high bidding prices, KT still stands to benefit the most from winning the targeted 1.8GHz spectrum.
Should these Telcos look at India to roll out their services ? Well, they’ll run away amidst the rampant Corruption & Lobbying that happens in India.