It wasn’t an easy task to estimate the potential clearing bid prices for 3G spectrum in each circle. Taking into considerations various parameters – current subscribers, reach, income levels, etc I assigned a multiple to each telecom circle depending on the growth potential and 3G service absorption capacity. In my estimate the price for all India 3G spectrum is expected to be ~$1.8 bn.
The circle wise breakup of winning bid is as shown in this spreadsheet. In my estimate Mumbai and Delhi will be the hottest circles mainly for two reasons – de-congestion of 2G Wireless Traffic using 3G spectrum and the potential for 3G Applications. Both circles will attract wining bid of ~ $240 mn. Mahrashtra, Karnataka and Tamilandu including Chennai will be the next most sought after circles. For the rest of the circles refer the sheet.
If at all DoT publishes the winning bid prices it will be interesting to see how I fared 🙂 Take your guess and feel free to paint me in Black & White. We have just 72 hours left for the Auction to began 🙂