LTE subscribers formed 4% of global wireless subs and 12% of mobile broadband (3G or LTE) subs globally at end of Mar 2014. At the end of Mar 2014, 74% of LTE subs were in three markets (US, Japan and South Korea). Each of these three markets ranks high on overall wireless broadband penetration (defined as % of 3G/LTE subs as % of total wireless subs) – US at 91%, Japan at 100% and South Korea at 95%. In other words, these countries had a very sizable 3G subs base to be tapped into as potential LTE customers. Continue reading How does India compare with Rest of World in Mobile Broadband Adoption ?
New Entrant Challenger, Uninor, a subsidiary of Telenor had declined to throw its hat in the 3G data war and wanst to focus on the Plain Vanilla Voice market in 6 circles where it has won licenses. Uninor Management believes the 3G ecosystem is not adequately evolved to invest in 3g spectrum purchase. It highlighted investment of large companies is restricted to only a few major geographies and 3g mobile penetration is at meagre levels. Telenor is currently selling data offerings on 2G platform and believes it is serving well for basic data services like emails and internet access. Continue reading Telenor India / Uninor say No to 3G; ARPU Grows 2.7% to Rs100
ERICSSON ConsumerLab conducted a survey in the age group of 15-50 years interviewing 4000 people across 16 Cities in India. Face to face interviews were also carried out with 200 customer care agents manning call centers for mobile operators across 8 Indian cities. They’ve also mined Twitter, Facebook, Blogs and Consumer Forums to understand the Mobile Broadband Experience among Indian Online users. Continue reading Indian Consumers Expectation Run High form Mobile Operators for 3G – Ericsson Survey
Even though the position of the incumbents is that auctioning 900MHz is illegal, TRAI’s proposed base price cuts make it reasonably priced. In Delhi, Airtel and Vodafone are very dominant (35% and 28% Revenue Market Share). They would place a much higher value on 900MHz retention than a challenger like Idea (11.6% RMS) or a Zero company like Reliance Jio Infocomm [0 Revenues] would place. The incumbents’ desperation to retain 900 and ensure continuity of operations would outweigh the price that a new entrant would be willing to pay. Thus expect incumbents to retain their entire 8MHz 900 holding in Delhi in the best case. In the worst case, the two incumbents would share 16MHz of 900 with a third player.
900MHz Spectrum doesn’t mean High RMS
Incumbency advantage is hard to shake off. For instance, Idea is still 4th in Karnataka after many years despite 900MHz spectrum. Tata DoCoMo, Uninor etc. have been unable to establish themselves Continue reading 900Mhz Spectrum Good for 3G but Not Critical + 3G Capacity no constraint yet
We’ve seen that just 35% of the Towers are 3G Lighted implying slow deployment of 3G data Services even 3 years after the auction. From a demand perspective, we believe that the challenge from a 12-15 month perspective is increasing 3G penetration. Even though it is a daunting task, the current c150m subscriber pool of 2G data users is clearly a segment, which can be upgraded to 3G services (and it is the handset vendors that will drive this with handset affordability being in the sub USD 100 category)
Pre-Paid and the Low Account Balance of Consumer a Concern for CAPEX
India is among the few markets globally that is pre-paid centric and without any handset subsidies). The second aspect is driving average usage per subscriber. We don’t think that Continue reading 3G Mobile Data Challenges – 27% of Subscribers have just Rs 30 Balance on Pre-Paid Accounts
Three years after the auction of 3G Spectrum in India, popular Telecom enthusiasts perception is that 3G in India so far has been a failure, with 3G data revenues accounting for less than 3% of mobile operators’ revenues. While 3G data revenue uptick is one of the most important end results operators would like to see from the 3G investments, a sole focus on this metric alone misses the full picture, and the benefits already accruing to telecom companies.
Airtel, Vodafone and Idea [A-Vo-Id] have ~35% of mobile sites in 3G circles already 3G enabled. Most of the top cities in these regions are already under 3G coverage—suggesting the near-term 3G catchment areas are well under coverage. Continue reading 3 Years after 3G Auction, A-Vo-Id Operators light 35% of their Towers with 3G & Carry 14% of Voice Traffic