Indian GSM Mobile Operators premium had touched 110% in Mar-09, highlighting sub quality differential. This probably made running a dual-technology network compulsion for Reliance Communications / Tata DoCoMO. ARPU differential has steadily narrowed since (GSM was 7% higher v/s CDMA in Dec-13). This was largely due to CDMA Subscriber clean-up and contribution by higher mobile data % (33% of rev; 12% for GSM) & higher competition in GSM have been the key. In this backdrop, we believe Reliance Communications’ / Tata DoCoMo’s CDMA networks are unlikely to become redundant, contrary to broader view. Continue reading CDMA ARPU Converged with GSM – TRAI Data
Another important parameter to measure the strength of a wireless operator is on the basis of Adjusted Gross Revenue – AGR, which is the first indication of the relative financial strength 😉 All figures are for the end of Dec-2008 quarter.
Bharti Airtel has consistently gained in the past 12 months with its market share rising from 29.8% to 33.9% [Remember, it has subscriber market share of just 25%]
Idea Cellular [including Spice] has surprised us. Its AGR has grown over the past 4 quarters from 9.5% to 11.6% and who knows may occupy the third slot very soon. [Subscriber market share of 11.1%]
Reliance Communications [GSM + CDMA] has consistently lost revenue market share in the past one year from 15% to 12%. [Subscriber market share of [17.9%]
Vodafone India has managed to increase its revenue market share from 18.5% to 19.6% i nthe past year. [Subscriber market share of 17.8%]
State owned telecom companies BSNL + MTNL are leading the losers pack with with revenue share deteriorating from 15.2% to 11.8% . [Subscriber market share 12.1% BSNL + MTNL – N. A] Thus, they hurriedly launched 3G services to arrest the downfall.
Tata Teleservices, full fledged CDMA operator is another laggard with revenue share declining marginally from 8% to 7.2% over the past year and a quarter. [Subscriber market share 9.3%]
Important Observation: CDMA Operators Consistently Losing to GSM Operators
Indian CDMA operators have consistently seen a decline in Revenue Market share from 21.6% in Q3 FY08? to 17.9% in Q3 FY09.? While GSM operators managed to gain the loss of CDMA operators and now control a whopping 82.1% of the Indian wireless space. Will the trend change with Sistema’s entry into the space ? Or something needs to be changed in the CDMA ecosystem to make it fit in the context of the second largest wireless market in the world ?