The higher data speed offered by 4G/LTE services is widely expected to boost mobile data usage. The launch of tiered data plans has given rise to optimism that operators can monetize this data opportunity and substantially drive ARPUs higher. However, we believe the emergence of innovative OTT applications and more ubiquitous WiFi technology could challenge the traditional mobile service provider model and cap the upside on ARPUs.
Industry watchers expect the increase in mobile connection speeds (as we transition from 3G to 4G) and the greater penetration of smartphones to drive exponential growth in mobile data usage. As per the CISCO VNI white paper on Global Mobile Traffic Forecast, global mobile data usage in 2012 reached 885 petabytes/month (or 0.9exabytes/month), up 70% yoy. It also predicts that global mobile data traffic will rise at a 66% CAGR to reach 11.2exabytes/month by 2017.
Globally, telcos are now offering tiered data pricing plans on the LTE platform as opposed to unlimited data usage plans which were in vogue in early 2012. Tiered data plans offer a more optimal use of pricing data usage and the possibility of raising ARPUs as users exceed their data usage bundles or shift to higher usage plans.
Over the last 4-5 years, we have seen an increasing number of wireless devices that are accessing mobile networks – smartphones, laptops, tablets, GPS devices etc. Users could be offered a bundled multi-platform wireless data plan across devices to monetise this opportunity.
The rise in smartphone usage and higher connection speeds have led to the proliferation of OTT services (over the top), which pose a challenge to traditional mobile services like voice and messaging. Applications like Skype, Viber and Whatsapp are a significant challenge to voice calls, IDD, roaming and SMS revenue streams. The larger concern for telco providers globally is being reduced to being a “dumb pipe” and a commoditised service while the user experience and branding are dominated by the OTT service providers.