TD-LTE will be a key secondary global 4G standard and could get up to 30% market share, in line with the percentage of global spectrum allocated on an unpaired basis. Three key factors which suggest a much more bullish outlook for TD-LTE are as follows:
China Mobile has spearheaded the development of a global trade called the Global TD-LTE Initiative (GTI), led by the former head of the GSMA trade group. It stresses the telecoms world is moving toward a multi-frequency, multimode future. The rapid ramp-up in data traffic is forcing operators to run multiple networks operating in increasingly fragmented spectrum bands. Qualcomm’s (QCOM) integration of both TDS-CDMA and TD-LTE into its flagship 8960 baseband chipset is a powerful first step and the next line of flagship chips will support 40 different band standards.
Like Wimax, TD-LTE operates in unpaired spectrum, allowing operators to dynamically adjust the amount of capacity allocated for uplink versus downlink. Industry sources including Ericsson suggest that video will grow from 50% of wireless data traffic today to 90% in the next two to three years. Operators suggest that a typical user consumes 4-5x times as much video traffic as they generate, suggesting operators should allocate 80% of their capacity to downlink and just 20% for uplink.
The most important global player in TD LTE is Japan’s Softbank, which is running a dual-mode FD-TD-LTE network and bidding for Sprint/Clearwire in the US. In India, Airtel LTE and Reliance Jio Infocomm are both in the early stages of rolling out TDE-LTE in 2.3Ghz. Most TD-LTE deployments emphasize modem-based, fixed line data bypass versus TD-LTE as a full service (voice and data) alternative to TD-LTE.
The LTE story is the most interesting in Korea. Most TD-LTE deployments emphasize modem-based, fixed line data bypass versus TD-LTE as a full service (voice and data) alternative to TD-LTE. However, Korea provides an important test case on voice over LTE (VoIP); as such as LGU+ looks to shut down legacy 2G networks
The key factor to watch on TD-LTE is the availability of low-cost multi-mode, multi-frequency handsets. China Mobile and its handset partners announced four multi-mode, multi-frequency smartphones in 11 different models catering to every segment of consumers.